Reactions and Reactors

TheFundamentals tends to focus on matters of finance, economics and government fiscal and monetary policy. These topics are near and dear to us because of the 40+ years of real life experience we have had in such matters. When we move away from these topics and embrace other non financial and economic topics we do so as amateurs. We rely upon other voices; others with firsthand experience and others who have either studied the circumstances or have spent time with the principals to permit them an insight into these matters. Such is the case with Iran and its nuclear intentions.

Recently, two important voices have been heard on the matter of Iran and its nuclear activities.

First, we reference an insightful and informed article printed in the Atlantic Monthly by Jeffrey Goldberg entitled, “The Point of No Return.” It can be accessed by clicking on: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/09/the-point-of-no-return/8186/

It is not comforting reading. We do not know if the situation described has the currency that the author suggests. We don’t know what our government is doing directly and indirectly with our allies and the principals. We do think that an understanding of the personalities and the issues and the motivations is important and necessary if our readers wish to anticipate possible strategic and tactical considerations rather than react to them after the fact. So, we encourage you to read the article.

The second article also bears a certain currency of timing and consequence. We don’t know much about John Bolton. We don’t know him other than to see him on occasion on a talk show. We do think he knows of what he speaks. Here is the article from the Jerusalem Post - http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=185060

We in the US of A know that there are growing groups of people in other countries and in our own land who wish us ill. We also know that they are immensely patient and not inclined toward the American concept of immediacy; now coupled with instant gratification and satisfaction. So when we see two informed individuals with knowledge, experience and some personal contacts tell us that something may be up and that something may involve an Israeli attack on Iran, we think, just to ourselves, “What the heck does that mean for us who are just trying to get along in the good old US of A?” After all, no one is calling us up and briefing us about these things.

If you were around in the 70’s you may recall gas lines and inflation and powerlessness. If not, just ask your Mom, Dad, older uncle or grandpa. Those of us who fall in one of those categories love to go on and on about how tough (and expensive) it was to get the tank filled and how goofy the grocery price increases were and how little confidence we had in our national government (no, we’re not talking about now; this was 30+ years ago.) So, what would be the impact of an Israeli attack on Iran? What would the impact be if the US of A either joined or condoned or supported such an attack? What does it mean that the Iranians are working with the Russians to bring their nuclear reactor closer to operation? What does this mean and what does the possibility of an attack on a nuclear reactor mean given that Israel has already bombed out two other nuclear reactors – Iraq (Osiraq) in1981 – Operation Opera and Syria in 2007 – Operation Orchad?

Well, we don’t know but we sure wouldn’t be making the book on the short end of the possibility of an Israeli attack on the Iranian reactor. We are not getting great input, analysis and strategy from CNN, PBS, ABC, Fox and NBC. What does it mean? Frankly, we think, they stay away from the topic because they would rather be politically correct and this topic is fraught with political correct minefields.

The US of A, our country is now a land of 310 million people. We no longer seem to be the growing, powerful economic player of the past. The times they are a changing. We are witnessing the development and strategic movements of others – developing nations; growing populations; strategic shifts in power and their balances. Our leaders are silent. They almost seem to be like parents of a noisy or disruptive child – focused on placating the youngster; anything to buy a few minutes of peace and quiet. Just let me get through and out of this and then things can hopefully be normal again.

It is not just fiscal promiscuity and deficits and debt and Muslim terrorists that should be on our mind. We are facing a real problem. We seem to be in the midst of a Mexican standoff. We just don’t see who can win this situation. We are just wondering, “Can we survive it?” We are just wondering, “What do we have to do to survive it?” The Israelis appear to be wondering the same.