"The most significant threat to our national security is our debt," Admiral Michael Mullen, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, August 27,2010

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

A brief message to our (and your) older folks, buddies, friends and family members

"There are reopening scenarios where it could get out of control very quickly," said Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, who created the model.

The Bloomberg school in a statement called the report a "preliminary" analysis that should not be used as a forecast.

The White House downplayed the figures on Monday, saying they had not yet been vetted.

"This data is not reflective of any of the modeling done by the task force, or data that the task force has analyzed," White House spokesman Judd Deere said in a statement.

White House officials have been relying on other models to make decisions on reopening, including one from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and a "cubic model" prepared by Trump adviser and economist Kevin Hassett and the Council of Economic Advisers.

People with knowledge of the "cubic model" say it shows deaths dropping precipitously in May - and plummeting to zero by May 15, where they stay throughout the summer.

Two people with knowledge of the White House task-force discussions said that they had not seen the draft government report, but that they were both fearful cases could rise with many of the states reopening.

The IHME model is now estimating that the United States will see nearly 135,000 deaths by August 1. That number is significantly higher than its estimate on April 17 - 60,308.

IHME's new higher projections "reflect the effect of premature relaxation of restrictions," said its creator, Christopher Murray. "In this era where those mandates being relaxed, people should be aware of the risk of infection is still there."

Relax folks – take it easy – separate a tad (two or three yards) from others – enjoy each other – and let each know how much you care for and love them and how much they mean to you…

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