Ben's Odyssey -- Chapter I

Od-ys-sey (noun):  a long wandering or voyage usually marked by many changes of fortune; an intellectual or spiritual wandering or quest.

Ten years ago, a man unknown to most, set out on a journey.  This journey of his began many years earlier as the child of a drug store owner in Dillon, South Carolina.  He did well in school – well enough to gain admission to Harvard University and thereafter to Massachusetts Institute of Technology.  This young man had the smarts to do almost anything – he chose to do ECONOMICS.  And he stayed in academia and prospered and then something remarkable happened.  He became a member of the board of directors of the Federal Reserve System – the central bank of the United States of America. The guys who control the money supply; the printing presses; the interest rates and darn near anything that has the following symbol connected with it:

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Ben’s odyssey was about to start.  Coincident with this new job of Ben’s in 2002 – fed board member, Ben was invited to give a speech to a group of economists.  Ben seized the moment; carpe diem, and gave them the speech of his life.  He chose to show the economists that when the moment was right; when the planets aligned; when the fear receptivity was greatest; when those who depended on rising prices and rising economic numbers to keep their paychecks and benefits and pensions rising; when they could be convinced that prices were not only going to stop rising but would actually decline; when they could be spooked to their core that something big had to be done – he, Ben, would be ready and able to deliver the goods; the monetary and fiscal stimulus to make everything all right again.  Just give Ben the reins and the odyssey can begin.  You see, Ben knew all about deflation.  Ben studied deflation.  But Ben needed the fear of deflation to arrive on the scene to get his voyage underway.  Ben was planning this voyage long before that propitious piece of the puzzle came into the picture.

This is the story of Ben’s voyage – his odyssey – told in his own words.  The quotes are Ben’s words:

“Deflation is defined as a general decline in prices…”

“Deflation per se occurs only when price declines are so widespread that broad-based indexes of prices, such as the consumer price index, register ongoing declines.”

“Deflation is in almost all cases a side effect of a collapse of aggregate demand--a drop in spending so severe that producers must cut prices on an ongoing basis in order to find buyers.   Likewise, the economic effects of a deflationary episode, for the most part, are similar to those of any other sharp decline in aggregate spending--namely, recession, rising unemployment, and financial stress.”

So, you can see how he sets up his opportunity to take on deflation – overall price decline (decline in consumer price index); not specific to one sector of the economy or one product or service and then a rather casual suggestion that it is derived from a “collapse of aggregate demand.”   We will examine this cause and effect later.  And then Ben concludes why we must fear this situation because a collapse of demand brings about “recession, rising unemployment and financial stress.”  That’s enough to scare most politicians and bureaucrats wouldn’t you agree?  Most of us too.  Remember Ben knew all this in 2002; ten years ago.  Ben knows deflation; Ben know depression; Ben knows that all he needs is a crisis to begin his odyssey.

Next Ben lays out his plan to keep deflation away from the great economy of the United States but, if it cannot be avoided, Ben also lays out his plan to show how he and he alone can deal with deflation; slay it in its tracks and save the economy.

Next, we will use Ben’s own words and follow Ben as he begins his odyssey.